OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at determining the prognostic factors related to the recurrence of low-back pain and future sickness absence due to low-back pain. METHODS: Data were used from a prospective cohort study in a working population with a 3-year follow-up period. They were collected with annual questionnaires. A generalized estimating equation model was used to study the relation between pain characteristics, individual characteristics, and work-related factors and the recurrence of low-back pain or sickness absence due to low-back pain in the following year. Adjustments were made for potential confounders. RESULTS: All the pain characteristics [odds ratios (OR) varying from 1.4 to 2.4], flexion and rotation of the upper part of the body [OR 1.6, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.1–2.5], low decision authority (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0–2.6), and low job satisfaction (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.0–2.3), increased the risk of recurrent low-back pain. High disability due to low-back pain (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.2–5.7), low co-worker support (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.6–10.5), and low job satisfaction (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3–4.5) were predictors of sickness absence due to low-back pain. Lifting weights did not influence the risk of recurrences or sick leave. CONCLUSIONS: According to this study, high disability due to low-back pain is a prognostic factor for recurrent low-back pain and future sickness absence due to low-back pain. In addition, the following work-related factors predict a poor prognosis of low-back pain: flexion or rotation of the trunk, low job satisfaction, low decision authority, and low social support.