PT Journal AU Kjærgaard, J Andersson, M TI Incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark and predicted future number of cases among men SO Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health PD 4VL PY 2000 BP 112 EP 117 IS 2 DI 10.5271/sjweh.520 WP https://www.sjweh.fi/show_abstract.php?abstract_id=520 DE age-cohort model; epidemiology SN 0355-3140 AB '

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OBJECTIVES ': 'This study analyzed the incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark in order to predict the future number of cases that will occur among Danish men.'

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METHODS ': 'The 1912 cases of malignant mesothelioma reported to the Danish Cancer registry in 1943-1993 were analyzed in order to describe current incidence rates. By a Poisson regression model the relative risks of synthetic birth cohorts were estimated and used in the prediction of the future number of cases that will occur among Danish men.'

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RESULTS ': 'The incidence rate increased to 1.33 per 100 000 person-years in 1983-1987 among men and to 0.51 in 1973-1977 among women. From the Poisson regression model, the risk for birth cohorts of men, relative to the 1940-1944 cohort, peaked in the 1940-1944 cohort and decreased to 0.57 in the 1950-1954 cohort. The age-specific incidence rate peaked at 246 per 100 000 person-years in the age group 80-84 years. The future annual number of mesothelioma cases is expected to peak around 2015 with 93 cases among men born before 1955.'

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CONCLUSION ': 'The fit of the models was not ideal, but with careful interpretation of the results, it was concluded that a further increase in the number of mesothelioma cases can be expected, and the effect of regulating the environmental exposure to asbestos cannot be expected within the next 10-15 years.

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